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Steel buyers in Europe are facing a market shift, as local producers are no longer offering hot-rolled coil (HRC) below €600 per tonne. Industry insiders report that market sentiment is psychologically prepared for an impending price increase, according to World Steel Dynamics.
At the start of March, some EU steel mills withdrew lower-priced offers, signaling an anticipated price hike for consumers. Traders predict a minimum increase of €20 per tonne, with one commenting, "Psychologically, the market is ready for a price change."
One factor contributing to the market's price readiness is a recent regulatory decision by the European Commission. On March 3, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced a postponement of stricter CO₂ emission targets for cars. Originally set to take effect in 2026, the new deadline has been pushed to 2028, giving the European automotive industry more breathing room. Automakers welcomed this move, boosting confidence in steel demand.
In February, HRC prices increased by €10-20 per tonne, reaching €600-605/t EXW in Southern Europe and €600-625/t EXW in Northern Europe. Based on these trends, VSD forecasts that prices will climb to €620-640 per tonne in Q2 2025.
Additionally, rising costs for metallurgical raw materials may push HRC prices even higher, reaching €640-650/t. However, the rate of increase may be tempered by large stockpiles accumulated in Q1.
Foreign imports continue to exert downward pressure on prices. As of early March, imported HRC offers to Italy were priced at €550-560/t CIF, 7% lower than domestic producers. This price gap has restrained local mills from raising prices more aggressively. However, if the European Commission introduces trade restrictions on imported steel, the situation could change dramatically. The Eurofer Association is actively lobbying for such measures.
In November 2024, the global hot-rolled coil market was marked by uncertainty. Despite marginal price increases in some regions, weak demand and economic instability limited sales activity. Now, with shifting trade policies and raw material costs rising, European steel producers are positioning themselves for higher prices in the coming months.
