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The World Steel Association has revised its global steel demand outlook for 2024-2025, indicating a decrease in growth projections. The updated report cites several factors contributing to this revision, including the delayed impact of monetary tightening, high costs, and geopolitical uncertainty leading to market volatility.
According to the World Steel Association, the projected global steel demand for 2024 is now expected to increase by 1.7%, reaching 1.793 billion tons. This forecast represents a downward revision from the previous estimate of 1.8491 billion tons. The association further predicts a 1.2% increase in global steel demand for 2025, reaching 1.815 billion tons. Additionally, Metal Expert forecasts a decline of 1.1% in steel demand for 2023.
Martin Theuringer, Chairman of the World Steel Association's Economic Committee, acknowledges the challenging market conditions and highlights the ongoing impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, Russia's invasion of Ukraine, high inflation, elevated costs, reduced household purchasing power, geopolitical uncertainty, and strong monetary tightening as contributing factors.
In China, steel demand for 2024 is expected to remain around the levels of 2023 due to declining real estate investment. However, the decline in demand will be offset by growth in steel demand driven by infrastructure investment and manufacturing. It is anticipated that China's steel demand will resume its downward trend in 2025, with a projected decline of 1%. This suggests that China may have reached its peak steel demand. The World Steel Association states that China is likely to continue experiencing a decline in steel demand in the medium term as the country shifts away from an economic development model reliant on real estate and infrastructure investment.
Developed countries are expected to witness an enhanced recovery in steel demand, with growth rates of 1.3% in 2024 and 2.7% in 2025. The European Union (EU) is anticipated to experience a significant rebound in steel demand in 2025, while steel demand in the United States, Japan, and South Korea is expected to remain stable.
India has been a strong driver of steel demand growth since 2021, and the World Steel Association expects this trend to continue in 2024 and 2025. The growth in steel demand in India will be primarily fueled by continued expansion in all steel-consuming industries, particularly robust growth in infrastructure investment, which is estimated to grow by 8%. The report suggests that India's steel demand is projected to increase by nearly 70 million tons in 2025 compared to the levels seen in 2020.
Steel demand in the Middle East, North Africa, and ASEAN countries is anticipated to accelerate in 2024-2025 after experiencing a significant slowdown in 2022-2023. However, the association notes that the ASEAN region faces growing challenges such as political instability and declining competitiveness, which may result in slower steel demand growth in the future.
